Can China help mediate peace in Ukraine?

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited China for the first time on Wednesday after being invited for talks by his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, as Beijing seeks to expand on its position as a mediator in helping end the war in Ukraine.

"I am convinced that a just peace in Ukraine is in China's strategic interests, and China's role as a global force for peace is important," Kuleba said in opening remarks. He is the highest-ranking Ukrainian official to visit China since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Before the three hours of talks on Wednesday in the southern city of Guangzhou, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang emphasized that Ukraine and China continue to maintain cooperative relations "despite complex and ever-changing international and regional situations."

In June, Wang reiterated China's "position on the Ukraine crisis" that Beijing "adheres to promoting talks for peace."

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry on Wednesday said Kuleba told Wang that Ukraine is "ready to negotiate with the Russian side at a certain stage, when Russia is ready to negotiate in good faith, but stressed that currently there is no such readiness on the Russian side."

China takes on role as mediator

Despite Beijing's positioning itself as a neutral arbiter, China is widely seen by Ukraine and its allies in the US and Europe as providing an economic lifeline for Russia to continue its war in Ukraine.

Beijing is also accused by the US and Europe of providing machine tools and microelectronics used to produce Russian weapons. Beijing denies providing Russia with any military support, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at the G7 summit in June that Chinese President Xi Jinping "gave him his word" that China would not provide weapons to Russia.

China has maintained that talks on ending the war should take Russian and Ukrainian interests into account. This is seen as a nonstarter in Kyiv, as Ukraine has said any peace settlement is contingent on Russia's withdrawal from Ukrainian territory. After more than two years of war, Russia now controls some 18-20% of Ukraine.

"Engaging with Ukraine ensures that China is not seen as favoring Russia excessively. While China has not explicitly supported Russia's war against Ukraine, its actions suggest indirect support through economic ties, financial systems and diplomatic maneuvers," said the head of DW's Chinese service, Petra Aldenrath.

"China seeks to expand its influence in Eastern Europe and position itself as a key global mediator," she added.

"Beijing's approach is driven by a mix of strategic interests, economic considerations and a desire to maintain its global diplomatic standing," she said.

Will China support a peace summit?

One item expected on the agenda during Kuleba's visit is lobbying Chinese officials to attend another peace summit expected before the US presidential election in November.

China did not send a representative to a peace summit hosted by Switzerland in June, which also did not include Russia.

Before the June summit, Wang said China had "put forward constructive suggestions" to Switzerland, according to China's official Xinhua news agency.

"There are many summits in the world today. Whether and how to participate, China will decide independently according to its own position," Wang added.

President Zelenskyy told the Shangri-La Dialogue defense forum in Singapore last month that Russia was attempting to use China's influence on smaller Asian countries to "disrupt" the peace summit.

Zelenksyy added he believes it is "unfortunate" that China was an "instrument" in the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

Ukrainian officials spearheaded the summit to highlight international support for what Zelenskyy has called a "peace formula" to end the war. A major point is "restoring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine" to internationally recognized borders, including Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.

Ahead of the Switzerland conference, China, along with fellow BRICS member Brazil, published a separate six-point peace plan that did not include the restoration of Ukrainian territory, but called for an "international peace conference held at a proper time that is recognized by both Russia and Ukraine."

Ahead of his visit this week, Kuleba said on social media "we must avoid the competition of peace plans."

Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told the AFP news agency that Kuleba's visit could attempt to "convince China that it should participate in a second peace summit."

What is China's vision for peace?

China has never condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and two weeks before Russia launched the war in early 2022, Xi and Putin lauded the "no limits" cooperation between their countries. Part of this is China and Russia both advocating a "multipolar" world order as an alternative to the United States and Europe.

In a 2023 document outlining China's position on a "political settlement of the Ukraine crisis," China called for upholding "sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries," while advocating peace talks and ending hostilities.

It also called for "abandoning the Cold War mentality," emphasizing "the security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs," the document said, in a thinly veiled reference to NATO expansion that both China and Russia have framed as a root cause of the war in Ukraine.

After Putin met with Xi in May, the Russian president blamed Ukraine for rejecting peace negotiations, while lauding China's diplomatic efforts.

In statements during such meetings, Moscow also claims to seek "dialogue" to end the war it started.

These statements are made as the Russian military continues to expand ground offensives on Ukrainian territory, bomb Ukrainian cities and target civilian infrastructure, including the recent attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv.