China: Population sinks for fourth year in a row

China's population fell for the fourth year in a row in 2025 after the country's birth rate dropped to its lowest point since records began almost 80 years ago, according to figures released by the national statistics office in Beijing on Monday.

What do the figures say

Only 7.92 million babies were born in the country last year, pushing the birth rate down 17% to 5.63 births per 1,000 people — the lowest since the foundation of the People's Republic of China in 1949.

Combined with a death rate of 8.04 per 1,000, the overall population of what was once the most populous nation on earth has fallen to around 1.404 billion — around 3 million less than the previous year.

The population of India surpassed that of China back in 2023 and currently stands at approximately 1.464 billion people.

At this rate, the Chinese population could shrink to around 800 million by the year 2100, according to calculations made by the United Nations.

The continued downturn comes despite numerous measures introduced by the Chinese government to encourage child-rearing a decade on from the end of its notorious, long-time one-child policy.

But incentives including better financial support for parents — the government announced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($500) per child to families in July 2025  and tax breaks for kindergartens, daycares and matchmaking services have failed to have the desired effect.

Nor has a 13% tax increase on condoms and other contraceptives, with the fertility rate estimated to have flatlined at 1 child per woman in her lifetime, far below the 2.1 rate that would maintain the size of China's population.