In the lead-up to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to the White House to meet with US President Donald Trumpon November 18, observers anticipate two key results: A friendly get-together and a series of signed agreements.
"Both sides will want to come away with a major deal or arrangements that show that the meeting was a resounding success," Neil Quilliam, associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the London-based think tank Chatham House, told DW.
For Prince Salman, or MBS, the trip marks his full return to the political stage in Washington. His last visit in 2018 was overshadowed by the outrage surrounding the murder of Saudi critic Jamal Khashoggi, which took place in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Saudi Arabia is widely believed to have been behind the killing.
Since then, bilateral ties have largely recovered. When Trump returned to office in January 2025, his first foreign trip was to Riyadh, where he announced a $600 billion (€517 billion) Saudi investment in the US.
This time around in Washington, both sides are likely to discuss artificial intelligence, investment, and collaboration on defense, security, and nuclear issues, given the fragile security situation in the Middle East.
In June, Israel and the US carried out attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, which led to several days of conflict. In September, Israel targeted Hamas's political leadership in Qatar, and in October, a fragile US-mediated ceasefire halted nearly two years of war in Gaza.
Security and Israel
"MBS will want to walk away with a security deal that is at least as good as the one Trump gave to Qatar," predicts Quilliam from Chatham House.
In September, following Israel's attack on Hamas's political leadership in Qatar's capital, Doha, Trump issued a bilateral deal for Qatar, offering the Gulf state security assurances in the wake of Israel's attack on Hamas leadership in Doha. Since the deal was enacted via executive order, it didn't require Senate ratification, which means it is likely to expire at the end of Trump's administration.
"A defense pact has been in the works for at least three years, but there's a need to speed it up as the Qataris got there first," Michael Stephens, senior Middle East Security advisor at the London-based defense think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told DW.
Before the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which ignited the war in Gaza, Israel and Saudi Arabia were supposedly on the verge of signing a US-brokered normalization deal, part of the so-called Abraham Accords. Other Arab countries, including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, and Morocco had already normalized ties with Israel in 2020 and 2021.
For Saudi Arabia, the deal would have been more of a trilateral agreement, with the US providing security guarantees — protection and support similar to what NATO member states receive from the alliance. The agreement would have also included a Saudi civil nuclear program.
However, with the onset of the war in Gaza, Saudi Arabia has ruled out signing a deal with Israel unless there is a credible path to a two-state solution with an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. This plan, however, has been publicly rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Despite this contradiction, Trump has repeatedly stated that he believes Saudi Arabia will eventually join the Abraham Accords. In a televised interview earlier in November, Trump predicted that the Kingdom would join the accords soon, regardless of progress on a Palestinian state.
Nonetheless, Quilliam argues that "Trump will not get a commitment from Saudi Arabia to normalize [relations] with Israel now."
Instead, he believes that during their meeting in Washington, Trump will seek Saudi commitment to support his Gaza peace process — not just politically, but financially, by helping fund the reconstruction of Gaza and offering financial assistance to Syria.
On the other hand, Riyadh will push for strong US support for a Palestinian state, along with a commitment to move the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas to "Phase Two." This phase would involve Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, the disarmament of Hamas, the establishment of a transitional authority, and the deployment of a multinational security force in Gaza.
"By offering a US security commitment, Trump will expect to see that Israel's integration to the region is firmly back on the table, and an end point will be normalization with Riyadh," Quilliam added.
What are Washington's ambitions?
"I suspect there will also be a conversation about civil nuclear power," RUSI's Stephens told DW, adding that the US is concerned about a recent defense agreement Saudi Arabia signed with Pakistan and whether it includes nuclear capabilities.
"I don't think that the Americans would want Saudi Arabia to go down its own pathway, kind of uncontrolled," Stephens added.
In addition to nuclear concerns, Washington is expected to raise the topic of artificial intelligence (AI). According to Stephens, "Trump wants to know where the Saudis stand in terms of investments [in] American artificial intelligence or US research centers on Saudi soil."
Stephens also believes that Trump hopes to secure a commitment from Riyadh to align with the US in global tech competition, particularly in the ongoing "computer chip war" and the AI race.
As a part of Saudi Arabia's ambitious economic overhaul, 'Vision 2030', the Kingdom is seeking to diversify its income and build its own AI industry.
Close ties despite controversies
Despite ongoing controversies, both sides are likely to disagree over oil production. The US would like to see an increase, while Riyadh "wants a moratorium on increased production, as the price is not where they would like it to be," Stephens told DW.
Another contentious issue could be Saudi Arabia's ongoing human rights situation.
However, Stephens doesn't believe these differences will overshadow the meeting. "I think it's going to be a very productive, friendly meeting," he said, adding, "we will see where it heads, as there are a lot of geopolitical questions for them to solve."
