Before the October 7 attacks, one could have thought that many leaders of the Arab world had forgotten about the Palestinians.Political calculations, above all the two-state-solution with an independent Palestinian state, seemed to be of little concern anymore.
The priorities had apparently shifted away from the Palestinians and, remarkably, towards Israel.In 2020, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan signed normalization agreements with Israel.
Also, talks with Saudi Arabia seemed to put Israel well on the way to peace with the influential neighbor in its south. According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, all of this heralded an "era of peace."
But then came the October 7 attack by the militant organization Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist organization in Germany, the EU, the US and several others. Hamas fighters killed around 1,100 Israeli citizens and kidnapped around 250 people. Around half have been released since, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails.
In turn, Israel launched air strikes on the Gaza Strip, and a ground offensive began at the end of October. Israel accuses Hamas of installing its military infrastructure in areas inhabited or used by civilians.
The Hamas-run Health Ministry has since put the number of deaths in the Gaza Strip at more than 21,000.Meanwhile, many Arab states have expressed their solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, for example, said that the war that Israel is waging against Hamas in the Gaza Strip is a "blatant aggression" against Palestinian civilians and threatens to destabilize the entire Middle East. By blocking the supply of food, medicine and fuel, he said, Israel was committing "war crimes."
Palestinians are back on the agenda
As of now, the Hamas terror attack has at least achieved one thing: The Palestinians and their concerns have returned to regional and international agendas. As a result, the Middle East conflict, which has remained unresolved for more than 70 years, is now back in the spotlight.
"Arab states are driven by their own stability concerns," Andre Bank, Middle East researcher at the Hamburg-based think tank, the Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), told DW.
Israel's direct neighbors Jordan and Egypt both signed peace treaties with Israel decades ago. They now fear, however, that a further escalation in Gaza or the West Bank might lead to a major displacement of Palestinians which could then lead to unrest in their own countries.
"As a result, demonstrations are allowed in Egypt, but not on Cairo's Tahrir Square, which was the center of the democracy movement in 2011," Bank said, adding that "President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi is worried that such protests could turn into demonstrations of solidarity in the spirit of the Arab Spring."
In Jordan, pro-Palestinian protests are allowed, however, not near the border with the West Bank. "The concern is that protests there could easily get out of control," Bank said.
Role of the Gulf states
In the Gulf states, though, protests have hardly happened so far. This is consistent with the Emirates' positioning, Bank told DW. The UAE even sided with Israel, at least initially, he added.
The small state of Qatar — some of the Hamas leadership live in Qatar's capital Doha — publicly criticized Israel several times. However, in an interview with the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) at the end of November, Qatar's head of government, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, described his country's relationship with Israel as "pragmatic."
"We in Qatar have repeatedly said that the problems are the occupation and the Palestinian issue, there is no other problem than that." If a solution to these issues is not found, the region would forever be trapped in a cycle of violence, Al Thani said, adding "otherwise, why should we have a problem with Israel if this is seriously addressed?"
Common interests
Experts doubt that the rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world will remain deadlocked in the future.
Johannes Becke, professor of Israel and Middle East Studies at the Heidelberg Center for Jewish Studies, told DW that "harsh rhetoric was expressed at the summit of Arab-Muslim states in Riyadh at the beginning of November, but it also stopped right there."
The main reasons for this, he says, are economic and geostrategic interests of Arab states with regard to Israel that remain largely untouched by the conflict in Gaza.
Israel is generally regarded as highly attractive partner for business and technology. Rapprochement with Israel also brings advantages in relations with the United States and other Western countries.
Furthermore, Israel is an important geostrategic partner for those countries that — like the Gulf states — also want to see Iran's influence in the region limited.
Intercepted missiles
"Saudi Arabia improved its relations with Iran in 2023," Becke said. However, the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which until the Hamas attack appeared to be rapid, seems to be on hold for the time being due to the war in Gaza.
However, when Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen started firing missiles towards Israel in early December to support Hamas in its fight against Israel, Saudi Arabia took action and intercepted the missiles aimed at Israel.
"Until recently, these missiles were fired towards Saudi Arabia itself and may also be aimed at the kingdom again," Becke said, adding that "in this sense, the geopolitical arguments in favor of an Arab-Israeli rapprochement remain unchanged, rather on the contrary, the Hamas attack may even have strengthened them."
Potential for mobilization
Still, the ongoing pro-Palestinian rallies in the Arab and Islamic world demonstrate the war's mobilization potential. This is precisely why Arab governments are likely to be interested in ending it as quickly and as permanently as possible before the protests jeopardize their own stability.
However, rapprochement with Israel may only be resumed after the war, and once the Palestinians benefit from of a new version of the two-state solution. In the FAZ interview, Qatar's head of government Al-Thani already outlined the framework for this: "The Palestinian issue can no longer be swept under the carpet," he said.
This article was translated from German.
