What now for Kashmir after SC ruling on Article 370 Abrogation?

A pall of uncertainty hangs over the headquarters of Kashmir's oldest and largest political party, the National Conference, a day after India's Supreme Court supported the 2019 decision by the government that fundamentally transformed constitutional guarantees related to citizenship, land ownership, and employment in the region.

In a unanimous ruling, the five-member bench of the Supreme Court headed by Chief Justice DY Chandrachud, said the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in 2019 had not overreached its power in withdrawing Kashmir's special status, known as Article 370, calling it a "temporary provision."

Tanveer Sadiq, the National Conference's chief spokesperson, described the judgment as disheartening, but vowed to continue to fight for the restoration of Article 370.

"We were hoping for justice for the people of Jammu and Kashmir from the highest court of the country," Sadiq told DW.

More than 20 petitions had challenged the controversial abrogation, contesting that the Indian parliament did not have the power to revoke the region's special status, maintaining that only the constituent assembly of Jammu and Kashmir could decide on it.

Article 370 of the Indian constitution had allowed Jammu and Kashmir to have its own constitution and a degree of internal autonomy. Under locally approved laws, this meant that only local Kashmiris could vote, own land, and apply for government jobs.

Kashmiris opposing the move in 2019 also said that scrapping the land ownership provision, called Article 35A, was a move by the BJP to engineer a demographic change in the Muslim-majority region.

Former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, Mehbooba Mufti, said that the BJP wants to "create a different type of demography" in Kashmir "by bringing people from outside and settling them here."

What now for Kashmir?

After the decision, the big question for Kashmir observers and regional politicians is how the region will move forward.

Radha Kumar, a former Kashmir interlocutor and a specialist on peace and conflict in South Asia told DW the move "disregards the democratic right of the affected people to be consulted and only hardens Kashmiri alienation from the union."

"It will lead to greater insecurity and possibly even violence, not right now but gradually," Kumar told DW.

"The militancy died earlier because people were exhausted by conflict and no longer hosted militants. Now, sympathy for militants is likely to return," she added.

For decades, Kashmir has been a hotbed of militant violence. Following the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, India responded to the resulting public unrest by sending in paramilitary troops to enforce curfews, while imposing a communications blackout.

In 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had justified removing the special status, in part, by claiming it would bring the security situation in Jammu and Kashmir under control, while boosting economic development.

Anuradha Bhasin, the executive editor of the Kashmir Times newspaper told DW the court's decision has led to "disappointment and a sense of loss."

She added there are concerns over maintaining stability because "Kashmir is a sensitive region with a very disturbing past."

A political shift in Kashmir?

Former Chief Minister Mufti said that in its decision, India's Supreme Court has "given a free license to a government with a brute majority to do whatever they want, just demolish whatever is left of the federal structure of the country."

"It is nothing less than a death sentence not only for Jammu and Kashmir but for the idea of India," Mufti said in a five-minute video message posted on social media.

The court also ruled Monday that Jammu and Kashmir should be put on par with other Indian states "at the earliest and as soon as possible," with local elections to take place by September 30 next year.

Navnita Chadha Behera, a political scientist and Kashmir expert, told DW that the verdict could alter the balance of power in the hands of the ruling party, which could potentially alter the federal character of the Indian state.

"To say the Indian parliament can speak for people of any state, and to do in a way that has irreversible implications, is huge," she said.

The political landscape in Kashmir, once dominated by regional parties like the National Conference, is now undergoing a seismic shift.

Kashmir political scientist Noor Muhammad Baba said that there is a chance for political forces to be mobilized in Kashmir.

"Once representative voices emerge, once democracy is restored, and people start to politically assert themselves, there will be pressures for certain safeguards, protection for land and jobs. There will be a quest for empowerment," he told DW.

BJP celebrates decision

Monday's ruling is expected to be a shot in the arm for Modi's BJP ahead of general elections due in May 2024.

Modi called the court judgement "a beacon of hope, a promise of a brighter future and a testament to our collective resolve to build a stronger, more united India."

Kashmir BJP minister Priya Sethi said that abrogating Article 370 will "help in integrating India."

The provision "had to go one day and it has gone. This is for the betterment of the nation," Sethi said.

Abdul Majeed, a houseboat owner from Srinagar, Kashmir's largest city, called the decision a "setback."

"We expected the court to look at the manner Article 370 was taken away and violations committed against the people. But now the government has a license to do what it wants," he said.