Will India listen to repeated environmental warnings?

Prasanna Kumar, a survivor of the deadly landslides that struck Kerala's Wayanad district on July 30, saw his sister and her family being swept away by the swirling and powerful muddy waters. Several others who were sleeping were caught unaware and were also  washed away.

"I have seen many landslides in this region but this was devastating. The ground shook and the earth under my feet gave way in the blink of an eye. There was a trail of death and destruction after," Kumar told DW from a relief camp. 

Fragile ecosystems

Rescue operations are winding down in the search for some 200 people who are still missing, including Kumar's relatives. The natural disaster took the lives of over 300 people and caused damage to property and infrastructure. It has also prompted soul-searching over whether India should be taking more steps to avoid environmental catastrophes in the future.

Sunita Narain, director at the Centre for Science and Environment in New Delhi, highlighted natural disasters in the Himalayan region as examples of the environment being unable to withstand damaging activities such as deforestation and ill-considered construction.

Last year, Joshimath town in the state of Uttarakhand was reported to be "sinking," with cracks in the town's buildings and streets. In October, a dam containing a glacial lake in Sikkim burst. The following month, a cave-in left over 40 Indian workers trapped in the Silkyara tunnel of the Himalayas for 17 days.

"It is just one example of the mindless way we are making hydroelectric projects in the fragile Himalayan zone. Should there not be better planning to decide what is good for people and good for the ecology? What is important is that we should have viable livelihood options for people in these fraught areas," Narain told DW.

Officials ignored recommendations from ecologists

In Kerala, the Western Ghats region where the landslides occurred is also an ecologically sensitive region where suggestions from environmentalists have been ignored. Quarrying and deforestation is carried out in unsuitable or dangerous locations.

An expert panel led by environmental scientist Madhav Gadgil recommended in 2010 that 75% of the 129,037 square-kilometer (49,821 square-mile) area of the Western Ghats be declared environmentally sensitive, citing its dense forests and the presence of many endemic species. But this was reduced to 50% just three years later based on recommendations by a second panel.

There are 5,924 quarries in Kerala, including in the most ecologically fragile zones, according to online outlet Mathrubhumi, citing a report by Gadgil. While not all quarrying is government-sanctioned, there is a lack of enforcement to crack down on quarrying without permits.

Gadgil attributed the landslide tragedy to the Kerala government's failure to implement crucial ecological recommendations, telling Indian media: "There is a direct link between hard-rock quarrying and slope failures in the form of landslides, especially in a place like Wayanad."

Should India update its weather warning system?

Nearly half of Kerala comprises hills and mountainous regions with slopes exceeding 20 degrees. A recent risk assessment, based on nearly 81,000 landslides covering 17 states in the country between 1998 and 2022, showed that Kerala witnessed 6,039 landslides and was the worst hit among non-Himalayan states, according to the Landslide Atlas of India.

Human-induced climate change is already intensifying weather extremes in India, including heat waves and flooding. Such events are likely to exacerbate disasters in already sensitive areas, such as on the steep slopes of Kerala. Ahead of the disaster, an unusually large 572 millimeters (22.5 inches) of rainfall was reportedly recorded in Wayanad in just 48 hours, triggering the massive landslides.

Akshay Deoras, a meteorologist from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the Department of Meteorology at the UK's University of Reading, called for India to adapt its current warning system to reflect the dramatic changes in climate the country is experiencing.

"The efficacy of the current color-coded warning system and the language used in alerts or forecasts must be re-examined by consulting all stakeholders in the country, including the media, citizens, disaster relief forces and state governments. Traditional ways of managing disasters are not going to work for such events," said Deoras.

He suggested that early warning systems in India be made more robust by exploiting the use of Doppler radars, satellites, real-time observations and direct communications with people. 

"The focus needs to be on improving weather prediction models as well," Deoras told DW.

"Meteorologists must be empowered to alert people directly, reducing the dependency on state governments or local authorities for the dissemination of alerts. The tornado warnings and prediction systems in the US provides some clues," he said.