New Delhi: Above normal monsoon is expected over most parts of the country during June to September this year except some areas of Northwest, East and Northeast India, where below normal rainfall is very likely, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday.
Releasing the long-range forecast for the 2024 southwest monsoon season rainfall, Dr M Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences said, “2024 southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall in the country is likely to be above normal this year. The seasonal rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 106 per cent of the Long period average.
The seasonal rainfall over Northwest, East and Northeast India is likely to be below normal seasonal rainfall, he added.
Currently, moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the El Niño condition is likely to weaken further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the early part of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during second half of monsoon season, the IMD said in an official statement.
At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest Climate model forecasts indicate that the positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the southwest monsoon season.
The northern hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months (January to March 2024) was below normal. Winter and spring snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a generally inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall, the IMD added.