Bengaluru: Karnataka’s political landscape is in turmoil as Governor Thawarchand Gehlot has authorized the prosecution of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah over allegations related to the Muda scam.
This decision has ignited a firestorm of controversy and deepened the Congress party's concerns about potential instability. Despite their strong majority in the state, the party is now on edge, fearing that political maneuvers could threaten their control.
The Congress party’s apprehension is rooted in recent political history. Karnataka and Maharashtra have both faced severe upheavals in the past decade. In 2019, Karnataka's coalition government, led by the Janata Dal (Secular) and Congress, collapsed following a rebellion by 15 Congress MLAs. Although the Congress now commands a larger majority, the memory of past instability looms large, heightening their fear of a similar collapse.
Adding to the turmoil is significant internal discord within the Congress. The party is split between factions led by Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar. Recent public clashes and criticisms from Siddaramaiah’s allies have exacerbated these divisions, further complicating the party’s position and increasing their vulnerability to external threats.
Historical precedents also weigh heavily on the Congress’s mind. Past instances where gubernatorial approval for prosecution led to major political fallout include Lalu Yadav’s conviction in Bihar, BS Yeddyurappa’s arrest in Karnataka, and more recently, Arvind Kejriwal’s legal troubles in Delhi. Each case resulted in severe consequences, including the removal of leaders from their positions, intensifying the Congress party’s concerns about the implications of Gehlot’s decision.
Currently, Karnataka’s assembly consists of 224 seats, with three vacant. The Congress holds 134 seats and has the support of two independent MLAs, securing a clear majority. However, the BJP and JD(S) lag behind with 66 and 18 seats, respectively. Despite this, the looming threat of horse trading—a tactic involving the poaching of legislators to destabilize a government—casts a long shadow over the Congress administration. This strategy, prevalent in Indian politics since the 1990s, threatens to undermine the party's stability.
The Congress party's reaction to Gehlot’s decision has been swift and forceful. Senior lawyer Abhishek Manu Singhvi has condemned the move as a deliberate attempt to destabilize the government, while Siddaramaiah has denounced it as a conspiracy against him and his administration. This strong backlash highlights the party’s deep anxiety about the potential consequences of the governor’s action.
As Karnataka confronts this latest crisis, the Congress party faces a precarious situation. The decision to prosecute Siddaramaiah, coupled with internal factionalism and the weight of historical instability, creates a fraught environment for the party. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the Congress can maintain its hold on power or if the state will once again be plunged into significant political upheaval.